The Impact of Current Global Trends on China's Steel Exports in 2026

In the opening months of 2026, China's steel exports have entered a critical period marked by the superimposition of policy adjustments, escalating trade frictions, and unexpected geopolitical conflicts. With the implementation of export license management, the full entry into force of the EU's CBAM, the global anti-dumping wave, and the tense situation in the Middle East, China's steel export sector is facing unprecedented pressure while also embracing opportunities for structural transformation. This article analyzes the multi-dimensional impacts of current trends on China's steel exports and puts forward practical countermeasures for relevant enterprises.

The year 2026 has witnessed intensive policy adjustments in China's steel export field, which have directly reshaped the export pattern and raised the threshold for market access.

Since January 1, 2026, the steel export license management system has been officially implemented, covering 300 customs codes related to steel products. This policy has significantly affected the export efficiency of small and medium-sized traders and low-value-added steel products, as the application and approval process of export licenses has increased the time cost and compliance burden of enterprises, leading to a short-term decline in order fulfillment efficiency.

Meanwhile, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has fully taken effect, requiring Chinese steel enterprises exporting to the EU to calculate carbon costs, submit carbon emission reports, and pay corresponding carbon tariffs. For long-process steel mills with relatively high carbon emissions, this has directly increased export costs, forcing enterprises to accelerate the layout of green and low-carbon transformation, improve carbon accounting systems, and adapt to the new global carbon emission regulatory requirements.

In addition, with the start of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, policy expectations around steel industry transformation and upgrading have been rising around the Two Sessions. Adjusting the export structure, promoting high-quality development, and reducing the export dependence on low-value-added products have become the core directions of policy guidance.

In recent years, global trade protectionism has been on the rise, and China's steel products have become the focus of trade remedy investigations in many countries and regions, which has brought severe challenges to the stability of export markets.

In 2025 alone, China's steel industry suffered 42 trade remedy investigations from 18 countries/regions. Entering 2026, the situation has further deteriorated: Pakistan has imposed an anti-circumvention duty of 19% on Chinese steel products, Indonesia has made a preliminary ruling of 17.55% anti-dumping duty on hot-rolled steel, and the EU has cut its steel duty-free quota by 47% and raised the excess tariff to 50%. The United States has maintained a tariff rate of more than 70% on Chinese steel products, forming a high trade barrier.

The continuous escalation of trade frictions has led to the contraction of China's steel export orders. The new export order index in January 2026 was only 37.9%, a continuous decline for several months. The traditional dominant markets such as Europe and the United States have been severely restricted, and the market space for low-value-added steel products has been further compressed, forcing Chinese steel enterprises to accelerate the pace of market diversification.

In late February 2026, the military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran triggered tensions in the Gulf region, which has had a direct impact on China's steel exports, mainly focusing on logistics and cost links.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for global oil and steel transportation, has been hindered, leading to the suspension of Middle East shipping routes. Shipping companies have imposed high additional fees, and the cost of war risk insurance has soared by 30% to 200%, with an additional fee of 1,000 to 3,000 US dollars per container. In 2025, China's steel exports to Persian Gulf countries reached 13.87 million tons, accounting for 11.7% of total exports. The current tension has led to a sharp increase in performance risks and a standstill in short-term orders.

At the same time, the rise in oil prices driven by the conflict has increased the fuel cost of steel per ton by 30 to 80 yuan, and the sea freight cost of raw materials and finished products has also risen synchronously, further increasing the cost pressure of steel exports. However, it is worth noting that Iran, which exports 11 million tons of steel annually, has a supply gap due to the conflict, which provides a short-term substitution opportunity for China's advantageous steel products such as galvanized steel.

Overall, the Middle East conflict has brought short-term negative impacts on China's steel exports, but it has also forced enterprises to accelerate the transfer of export markets to Southeast Asia and the Belt and Road regions, which is conducive to the long-term diversification of China's steel export market structure.

Affected by the above multiple factors, China's steel export market has undergone profound changes, and the transformation from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement" has become an inevitable trend.

In terms of market distribution, traditional markets in Europe and the United States face high trade barriers, while emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and the Belt and Road regions have become the new focus for China's steel exports. The proportion of steel exports to the Belt and Road regions has continued to rise, becoming an important support for stabilizing China's steel exports.

In terms of product structure, high-value-added, green and low-carbon, and special steel products have become new growth points. With the upgrading of global industrial demand and the promotion of carbon emission reduction policies, market demand for high-end plates, special steel, and green steel has continued to increase. Chinese steel enterprises that can provide high-quality, high-performance, and low-carbon products are more likely to gain competitive advantages in the global market.

Faced with the complex and severe export environment in 2026, Chinese steel export enterprises need to take proactive measures to respond to challenges and seize opportunities.

First, prioritize compliance. Enterprises should timely understand and adapt to the latest export policies of China and importing countries, complete the application and approval of export licenses as soon as possible, improve the carbon accounting system, and actively respond to the EU's CBAM requirements to avoid trade risks caused by non-compliance.

Second, diversify the market. Enterprises should further deepen their layout in the Belt and Road, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other emerging markets, reduce their dependence on a single market such as Europe and the United States, and improve the stability of export markets.

Third, upgrade products and technologies. Enterprises should increase R&D investment, focus on the R&D and production of high-value-added, green, and low-carbon steel products, replace simple price competition with technology and service advantages, and improve product competitiveness.

Fourth, innovate business models. Enterprises should transform from simple product export to the export of "technology + service + projects", and actively layout overseas production capacity to avoid trade barriers and reduce logistics costs.

In conclusion, the short-term pressure on China's steel exports in 2026 is a pain of transformation. In the long run, under the guidance of policies, the promotion of green transformation, and the advancement of market diversification, China's steel exports will gradually move from "scale advantage" to a new era of comprehensive competitiveness characterized by "quality + compliance + service". For Chinese steel enterprises, seizing the opportunity of structural transformation and enhancing their core competitiveness is the key to achieving sustainable development in the global market.