Umthelela wezimo Zomhlaba Zamanje Ekuthunyelweni Kwensimbi YaseChina Ngo-2026

Ezinyangeni zokuqala zika-2026, ukuhanjiswa kwensimbi eChina sekuhamba esikhathini esibalulekile esibhalwe ngokuhlanganiswa kwezinguquko zepolitiki, ukwanda kwezinkinga zokuhweba, kanye nezimpi zezepolitiki ezingalindelekile. Ngokufakwa kokuphathwa kwemvume yokuhweba, ukungena ngokuphelele kokusebenza kwe-CBAM ye-EU, ukuhamba komhlaba kokulwa nokuphakanyiswa, kanye nesimo esinzima eMpumalanga Ephakathi, umkhakha wokuhweba kwensimbi eChina ubhekene nengcindezi engakaze ibonwe ngaphambili ngenkathi uthokozisa amathuba okuguqulwa kwesakhiwo. Le ndatshana ihlaziya imiphumela eminingi yamanje kumahwebo ensimbi eChina futhi iphakamisa izixazululo ezisebenzayo ezinkampanini ezithintekayo.

Unyaka ka-2026 ubone ukulungiswa okunamandla kwezinqubomgomo emkhakheni wokuthekelisa insimbi yase-China, okuye kwashintsha ngqo imodeli yokuthekelisa futhi kwandisa umkhawulo wokungena emakethe.

Kusukela ngoJanuwari 1, 2026, uhlelo lokuphathwa kwezilayisense zokuthekelisa insimbi selusebenza ngokusemthethweni, luhlanganisa amakhodi wangokwezifiso angama-300 ahlobene nemikhiqizo yensimbi. Le nqubomgomo ibe nomthelela omkhulu ekusebenzeni kahle kokuthekelisa kwabathengisi abancane nabaphakathi nemikhiqizo yensimbi enezinzuzo ezingezansi, njengoba inqubo yokufaka isicelo nokugunyazwa kwezilayisense zokuthekelisa yandise izindleko zesikhathi nomthwalo wokuthobela izinkampani, okuholele ekwehleni okwesikhashana ekusebenzeni kahle kokufeza ama-oda.

Ngaleso sikhathi, i-Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) ye-EU isiqalile ukusebenza ngokuphelele, ifuna ukuthi izinkampani zensimbi zaseShayina ezithumela ngaphandle e-EU zibalise izindleko ze-carbon, zithumele imibiko yokukhishwa kwe-carbon, futhi zikhokhe ama-tariffs e-carbon afanele. Kubamaki bezinsimbi bezinqubo ezinde abane-carbon emissions aphezulu, lokhu kukhuphule ngqo izindleko zokuthumela ngaphandle, kuphoqa izinkampani ukuthi zisheshise ukuhlela ukuguqulwa okuhlanzekile nokuphansi kwe-carbon, zithuthukise izinhlelo zokubala i-carbon, futhi zivumelane nezidingo ezintsha zokulawulwa kokukhishwa kwe-carbon emhlabeni jikelele.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokuqala kwe-China's 15th Five-Year Plan, ukulindela ngezinkambiso mayelana nokuguquka nokuthuthukiswa komkhakha wensimbi kube kukhula eduze kwe-Two Sessions. Ukulungisa isakhiwo sokuthekelisa, ukukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu, nokunciphisa ukuncika ekuthekeliseni emikhiqizweni enezinzuzo eziphansi kuye kwaba yizinkomba eziyinhloko zesiqondiso sezinkambiso.

Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo emhlabeni wonke kube kukhula, futhi imikhiqizo yensimbi yaseChina isibe yindawo yokugxila kwezinyathelo zokulungisa ezohwebo emazweni nasezifundeni eziningi, okulethe izinselelo ezinkulu ekuzinzeni kwezimakethe zokuthekelisa.

Ngonyaka ka-2025 kuphela, umkhakha wezinsimbi waseShayina ubhekane nezinsuku zokuhlola izixazululo zokuhweba ezingu-42 ezivela ezweni/izifunda eziyi-18. Ngokungena ku-2026, isimo sibe sibi kakhulu: iPakistan ibeke umthwalo wokuvikela ophikisanayo ongu-19% emikhiqizweni yezinsimbi zaseShayina, i-Indonesia yenze isinqumo sokuqala sokuthi umthwalo wokuphuma ongu-17.55% ube semthethweni ezinsimbini ezishisayo, kanti i-EU yehlise umkhawulo wayo wezinsimbi ongakhokhiwe ngama-47% futhi yanda umthwalo ophakeme ube ngu-50%. I-United States igcine izinga lemali yokuhweba elingaphezu kwama-70% emikhiqizweni yezinsimbi zaseShayina, kwakha umkhawulo ophakeme wokuhweba.

Ukuqhubeka kokwanda kwezingxabano kwezohwebo kuholele ekunciphisweni kwama-oda okuthekelisa insimbi yaseChina. Inkomba yama-oda amasha okuthekelisa ngoJanuwari 2026 yayingu-37.9% kuphela, ukwehla okuqhubekayo izinyanga eziningana. Izimakethe ezinkulu ezijwayelekile ezifana neYurophu ne-United States zivinjelwe kakhulu, futhi isikhala semakethe semikhiqizo yensimbi engekhona kakhulu inzuzo sihlanganiswe kakhulu, siphoqa izinkampani zensimbi zaseChina ukuthi zikhulise isivinini sokuhlukahlukana kwemakethe.

Ekupheleni kukaFebruwari 2026, impi yasempi phakathi kwe-United States, i-Israel ne-Iran yadala ukungezwani esifundeni saseGulf, okube nomthelela oqondile ekuthengisweni kukasimende kwe-China, ikakhulukazi egxile ezixhumanisi zezokuthutha nezindleko.

I- Strait of Hormuz, umgwaqo obalulekile wokuhanjiswa kwe-oyili nezinsimbi emhlabeni, ibihlaselwe, kuholele ekumiselweni kwemigwaqo yokuhamba kwezimpahla eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Izinkampani zokuhamba zifake izindleko eziphezulu ezengeziwe, kanti izindleko zokuqinisekisa ubungozi bempi zikhuphukile ngama-30% kuya kwama-200%, nezindleko ezengeziwe ezingu-1,000 kuya kwengu-3,000 zama-dollar aseMelika nge-container. Ngonyaka ka-2025, ukuthunyelwa kwezinsimbi kweChina ezweni le-Persian Gulf kufinyelele ku-13.87 million tons, okwakuhambisana no-11.7% wezokuthunyelwa jikelele. Ukungezwani okwamanje kuholele ekukhuleni okukhulu kwezingozi zokusebenza kanye nokuma kwemiyalo yesikhashana.

Ngasikhathi sinye, ukwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela okuholelwa yimpikiswano kukhuphule izindleko zezimoto zensimbi ngonyaka ngo-30 kuya ku-80 yuan, futhi izindleko zokuthutha olwandle zezinto ezisemqoka nemikhiqizo eqediwe nazo zikhuphukile ngokuhambisana, kukhuphula ingcindezi yezindleko zokuthumela insimbi phesheya. Nokho, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi i-Iran, ethumela insimbi engu-11 million tons ngonyaka, inenkinga yokuhlinzeka ngenxa yempikiswano, okuhlinzeka ngethuba lokufaka esikhundleni okwesikhashana kwemikhiqizo ye-insimbi yeChina efana nensimbi eyenziwe ngegalvanized.

Sekukonke, impi yaseMiddle East ibe nomthelela omubi esikhathini esifushane ekuthengisweni kwensimbi yaseChina, kodwa futhi yenze amabhizinisi ukuthi asheshise ukudlulisela izimakethe zokuthekelisa eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia nasezifundeni ze-Belt and Road, okuzuzisa ukuhlukahluka kwesikhathi eside kwesakhiwo sokuthekelisa insimbi yaseChina.

Kuthintwe yilezi zici eziningi ezingenhla, imakethe yokuthekelisa insimbi yaseChina isibe nezinguquko ezinkulu, futhi ukuguquka kusuka "ekukhuleni kwenani" kuya "ekuthuthukisweni kwekhwalithi" sekuyinto engenakugwenywa.

Ngokwendawo yokusabalalisa emakethe, izimakethe ezijwayelekile zaseYurophu kanye ne-United States zibhekene nezithiyo eziphakeme kwezohwebo, kanti izimakethe ezisencane njenge-ASEAN, iMiddle East, nezifunda ze-Belt and Road sezibe yindawo entsha lapho iChina ikhipha khona insimbi. Isilinganiso sezinsimbi ezithunyelwa emazweni ase-Belt and Road siqhubeke nokukhuphuka, saba ukwesekwa okubalulekile ekuzinziseni ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi kweChina.

Ngokwendawo yesakhiwo somkhiqizo, imikhiqizo enezinzuzo eziphakeme, eluhlaza futhi enekhabhoni ephansi, kanye nensimbi ekhethekile, sezibe yizindawo ezintsha zokukhula. Ngokukhuphuka kwesidingo sezimboni emhlabeni wonke kanye nokukhuthazwa kwezinqubomgomo zokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni, isidingo semakethe samapuleti aphezulu, insimbi ekhethekile, kanye nensimbi eluhlaza siqhubeke nokwanda. Izinkampani zensimbi zaseShayina ezinganikeza imikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu, esebenza kahle kakhulu, futhi enekhabhoni ephansi zizoba namathuba amaningi okuphumelela emakethe yomhlaba.

Bhekene nemvelo yokuthekelisa eyinkimbinkimbi neyenzima ngo-2026, izinkampani zokuthekelisa insimbi yaseChina kudingeka zithathe izinyathelo zokuqala ukuphendula izinselelo futhi zibambe amathuba.

Okokuqala, phambili ngokuthobela imithetho. Amabhizinisi kufanele aqonde futhi ajwayelane ngesikhathi nezimiso zakamuva zokuthekelisa zase-China kanye namazwe angaphandle, agcwalise isicelo nokuvunyelwa kwezilayisense zokuthekelisa ngokushesha okukhulu, athuthukise uhlelo lokubala kwekhabhoni, futhi aphendule ngokuzimisela ezidingweni ze-EU ze-CBAM ukuze agweme izingozi zokuhweba ezibangelwa ukungathobeli imithetho.

Okwesibili, yenza izimakethe zibe ezahlukahlukene. Izinkampani kufanele ziqhubeke nokujulisa ukuhlelwa kwazo e-Belt and Road, e-Southeast Asia, e-Middle East kanye nezinye izimakethe ezisencane, zinciphise ukuncika kwazo emakethe eyodwa njenge-Europe ne-United States, futhi zithuthukise ukuzinza kwezimakethe zokuthekelisa.

Okwesithathu, thuthukisa imikhiqizo nobuchwepheshe. Izinkampani kufanele zandise utshalomali ku-R&D, zigxile ku-R&D nokukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo kasimende enenzuzo enkulu, eluhlaza futhi enekhabhoni ephansi, zishintshe ukuncintisana kwentengo okulula ngezinketho zobuchwepheshe nezinsizakalo, futhi zithuthukise ukuncintisana kwemikhiqizo.

Okwesine, yenza izindlela zebhizinisi ezintsha. Amabhizinisi kufanele ashintshe kusuka ekuthengiseni imikhiqizo elula kuya ekuthengiseni "ubuchwepheshe + isevisi + amaphrojekthi", futhi asebenzise amandla okukhiqiza aphesheya ukuze agweme izithiyo zohwebo futhi anciphise izindleko zokuthutha.

Ekuphetheni, ingcindezi yesikhashana ekuthumeleni insimbi yaseShayina ngo-2026 iyisixuku sokuguqulwa. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngaphansi kokuholwa kwezinhlelo, ukukhuthazwa kokuguqulwa okuluhlaza, kanye nokuthuthuka kokuhlukahluka kwemakethe, ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi yaseShayina kuzohamba kancane kancane kusuka "ekutheni kukhona okukhulu" kuya esikhathini esisha sokuncintisana okuphelele okuchazwa "ngokwakhiwa + ukuhambisana + insizakalo". Kubantu bezimboni zensimbi yaseShayina, ukuthola ithuba lokuguqulwa kwesakhiwo nokwandisa amandla abo ayinhloko kuyisihluthulelo sokufeza ukuthuthukiswa okungaguquki emakethe yomhlaba.